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基于FRAM的煤矿事故网络风险路径分析

Risk path analysis of coal mine accidents based on FRAM

  • 摘要: 为预防煤矿生产事故带来的人员伤亡和事故损失,提出一种基于功能共振分析模型(FRAM)和复杂网络(CN)进行风险分析的方法:整理近年来96起重特大煤矿事故调查报告,分析煤矿特点,将事故致因与煤矿生产过程联系起来,建立具有14个功能模块的煤矿生产FRAM模型,构建煤矿生产复杂网络模型;基于CN理论,利用节点中心性和共现率,从节点、边2个方面分析了煤矿生产网络结构特征,探究生产开始至事故发生的风险演化路径。根据分析结果,提出煤矿生产事故预防建议,研究结果对预防煤矿生产事故,提升煤矿生产安全水平有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: To prevent personnel casualties and accident losses in coal mine production,a risk analysis method based on functional resonance analysis model (FRAM) and complex network (CN) was proposed. Firstly, the characteristics of coal mines were analyzed based on the investigation reports of 96 major coal mine accidents in recent years,and the causes of the sorted accidents were linked to the coal mining process to establish a FRAM model for coal mining production with 14 functional modules. Then,the coal mining production complex network model was constructed based on the FRAM model. Finally,based on the CN theory, the structural features of the coal mining production network were analyzed from the perspectives of nodes and links using node centrality and co-occurrence rate,and the risk evolution path from production start to accident occurrence was identified. Based on the analysis results,preventive measures for coal mine production accidents were proposed. The research results are of great significance for preventing coal mine production accidents and improving coal mine production safety levels.

     

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