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矿井涌水量预测方法的适用性探讨

Discussion on the applicability of prediction methods for mine water inflow

  • 摘要: 为探究适用于生产矿井的涌水量预测方法,首先,从大井概念模型出发,分析了煤矿“大井”需数十年才能形成,地下水流场时效性参数难以获取,吉哈尔经验公式存在过度延伸引用、少量的参数代表性不足等问题,综合导致大井法预计误差高达84%~398%。其次,基于矿井涌水量历时曲线特征是井田水文地质条件综合反映的观点,提出了基于趋势线的矿井涌水量预测方法;通过建立新型涌水量台账计算得到的吨煤富水系数更接近实际情况,提升了富水系数法预测的准确性。最后,以同一矿井为例,分别采用富水系数法和趋势线法对矿井未来3年的涌水量进行了预测,2种方法所得结果的相对误差为14.2%~17.3%。综合对比上述3种方法,大井法适用于矿井初设阶段和投产初期阶段,而生产矿井宜采用富水系数法或趋势线法,其前提是涌水量数据采集需具备连续性和完整性。

     

    Abstract: To identify a more effective method for predicting water inflow in production mines, this study first examines the "large well" conceptual model. The formation of "large wells" in coal mines typically requires several decades, making it difficult to obtain time-dependent groundwater parameters. Additionally, the Gal empirical formula relies on limited parameters and is prone to overextension, resulting in high prediction errors ranging from 84% to 398%. Recognizing that mine water inflow over time reflects the site's hydrogeological conditions, this study introduces the potential line method for water inflow prediction. By calculating the water-rich coefficient based on updated inflow data, the accuracy of predictions improves compared to traditional methods. Using a case study of a single mine, water inflow was predicted using both the water-rich coefficient method and the trend line method. The relative errors for these approaches ranged from 14.2% to 17.3%. Overall, the large well method is best suited for the early stages of mine design and initial production. For ongoing operations, the water-rich coefficient method or trend line method is recommended, provided that water inflow data is collected continuously and comprehensively.

     

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