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基于组合赋权-可拓云理论的充填管道堵塞风险评价

Risk assessment of filling pipeline blockage based on combined weighting-extension cloud theory

  • 摘要: 管道输送是膏体充填成功与否的一个重要环节。为确保膏体充填系统中的管道输送可靠性,基于人—物—环—管(MMEM)理论,选取人员、管理、物料、管道和环境5种因素作为综合评价指标,构建充填管道堵塞事故风险评价指标体系; 将各评价指标统一量纲并转化为云模型参数对指标进行等级划分,采用层次分析法(AHP)与指标相关性权重法(CRITIC)的组合赋权方法,确定评价指标综合权重; 基于可拓云理论,利用充填开采风险评价模型,对裕兴煤矿2918工作面充填管道堵塞事故发生的风险程度进行评价。结果表明:该方法得出的评价结果与现场验证结果吻合度较高,对充填管道堵塞风险评价具有一定的参考价值。

     

    Abstract: Pipeline transportation is a crucial step for the success or failure of paste filling. To ensure the reliability of pipeline transportation in the paste filling system, based on the Man-Material-Environment-Management (MMEM) theory, five factors including personnel, management, material, pipeline, and environment were selected as comprehensive evaluation indicators, and an evaluation index system for the safety assessment of filling pipeline blockage accidents was constructed. The dimensionality of each evaluation index was unified and converted into cloud model parameters to classify the indicators. The combined weighting method, which integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) method, was adopted to determine the comprehensive weights of the evaluation indicators. Based on the extension cloud theory evaluation method and the filling mining safety assessment model, the risk degree of filling pipeline blockage accidents at the 2918 working face of Yuxing Coal Mine was evaluated. The results show that the evaluation results obtained by this method are in good agreement with the on-site verification results, which provides a certain reference value for the risk assessment of filling pipeline blockage accidents.

     

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