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基于博弈组合赋权-可拓云模型的深部煤巷围岩稳定性评价

Stability evaluation of surrounding rock in deep coal roadways based on game theory-based combined weighting and extension cloud model

  • 摘要: 针对深部煤巷围岩稳定性评价中多因素耦合作用复杂、评价指标模糊性与随机性并存的问题,开展以下研究:①基于博弈论与可拓云理论,构建围岩稳定性评价体系;②引入基于随机森林法的专家共识模型,通过均值填补和四分位距法异常值检测处理缺失数据,以解决定性指标评价中专家评分不一致的问题;③采用DEMATEL法和熵权法分别确定主、客观权重,通过博弈论组合赋权法优化主、客观权重冲突;④建立融合云相似度与云隶属度的可拓云评价模型,对围岩稳定性进行定量评估。结果表明:融合博弈论与可拓云算法,有效解决了多源信息耦合下的围岩稳定性量化评估问题,较传统云模型计算结果的均衡性有较大提升。以淮南朱集西煤矿13101工作面为例,模型评价结果与现场实测数据吻合度达92.3%,且支护优化后顶底板累计位移控制在118.5 mm、两帮收敛量为167.0 mm,符合设计要求。为深部巷道围岩动态安全管控提供了理论依据与决策支持。

     

    Abstract: To address the complex coupling of multiple factors and the coexistence of fuzziness and randomness in the stability evaluation of surrounding rock in deep coal roadways, an evaluation framework based on game theory and the extension cloud model is first established. An expert consensus model using the random forest algorithm is then introduced: missing data are imputed by mean imputation, and outliers are detected and handled via the interquartile range (IQR) method, thereby resolving inconsistencies in qualitative expert ratings. Subsequently, the DEMATEL method and the entropy weight method are employed to determine subjective and objective weights, which are then reconciled through game theory-based combined weighting optimization to resolve conflicts between the two. Finally, a quantitative assessment model integrating cloud similarity and cloud membership is developed to evaluate rock mass stability. The results show that the fusion of game theory and the extension cloud model effectively overcomes the challenge of multi-source information coupling in quantitative stability assessment, achieving a substantial improvement in the balance of calculation results compared to the conventional cloud models. Taking the No.13101 working face at the Zhujixi Coal Mine in Huainan as a case study, the model's evaluation results agree with field measurements to 92.3%;after support optimization, the cumulative roof-to-floor convergence was limited to 118.5 mm and the rib convergence to 167.0 mm, both meeting design requirements. This study thus provides a theoretical basis and a decision-support framework for the dynamic safety control of surrounding rock in deep roadways.

     

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