Abstract: Based on land-use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of land-use in Taiyuan, a typical resource-based city, was conducted by integrating the land- use dynamic degree, the PLUS model, and the geographical detector. Furthermore, the land - use patterns under different development scenarios for 2030 were simulated. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the construction land increased by 84. 05%, while the cultivated land decreased by 12. 7%, and the structure of ecological land tended to be optimized. The driving mechanisms for the expansion of different land types varied, with cultivated land primarily driven by distance to fourth-level roads, forest land by population density, grassland and construction land by elevation, and water areas by distance to lakes. Among individual factors, GDP showed the strongest explanatory power, and factor interactions demonstrated nonlinear enhancement effects. Multi-scenario simulations revealed clear differences in land-use change trends under natural development, ecological protection, economic development, and cultivated land protection scenarios, reflecting the impact of different policy orientations on land use allocation. This research provides a scientific basis for land resource optimization, ecological protection, and the coordinated socio-economic development of resource-based cities.