Abstract: The continuous evolution of land use structure in mining areas exerts a significant impact on ecosystem carbon storage.Quantifying the response mechanisms of carbon storage to land-use transitions under different development scenarios in coal mining regions is essential for achieving ecological restoration of energy bases and the goals of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality".Taking the Yushenfu Mining Area as the study region, based on remote sensing image data from 1990 to 2021, the InVEST model was used to quantitatively evaluate the characteristics of carbon storage changes across different periods.The PLUS model was applied to simulate land-use patterns in 2035 under three development scenarios—natural development, farmland protection, and ecological protection—while the Geodetector model was used to identify the dominant driving factors and their interactions influencing the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage.The results indicate that: (1) From 1990 to 2021, the land-use pattern in the mining area underwent significant changes.The continuous expansion of construction land and the notable reduction in unused land, coupled with the increase in grassland and forest area, contributed to an overall upward trend in carbon storage.(2) Carbon storage responses varied considerably under different development scenarios, with the ecological protection scenario showing the highest increase (13.94%), whereas the farmland protection scenario showed a slight decline, indicating that the explicit parameterization of policy constraints plays a key regulatory role in simulations.(3) The spatial differentiation of carbon storage was jointly driven by natural and anthropogenic factors.In loess regions, it is primarily dominated by the intensity of human activities, whereas in sand-covered areas, it is constrained by natural factors such as precipitation.The study constructed a "policy-scenario-land-carbon storage" chain-coupled framework, revealing the natural-social synergistic mechanisms driving the evolution of carbon storage in semi-arid energy bases.This provides scientific support for ecological restoration, spatial planning optimization, and regional carbon management in coal resource development areas.